Politics

Paul Keating wrote in to The Australian, and he wasn't happy with Janet...

OVER the years and in the many pieces Janet Albrechtsen has written where she has mentioned me, I have never responded to her provocations.

No articles, no letters to the editor, nothing.

But on Wednesday, she was at it again, warning Kevin Rudd that Keating’s embrace of sophisticated elites is the road to electoral oblivion because the Keating agenda was anathema to the wider electorate. People must be so tired of this nonsense.

Were the 2.5 million people who got jobs during my years not part of the wider electorate? Were the children whose retention to Year 12 going from three in 10 in 1983 to nine in 10 in 1996, not part of the wider electorate? Were the 10 million in the workforce who got access to national compulsory superannuation, for the first time, not part of the wider electorate? Or the people given a leg up from long-term unemployment under the unique Working Nation programs, not part of the wider electorate? Were the millions of women and young people protected by the safety net under the Keating government’s 1993 enterprise bargaining legislation, not part of the wider electorate?

Albrechtsen’s journalism is nothing more than belligerent and partisan fiction. She is simply a blackguard. And an exceptionally dull one at that.

Indeed.Yesterday Obama trounced Hillary in the Wisconsin primary and the Hawaii caucuses, extending his post-Super Tuesday winning streak to 10. So whereabouts are the pieces positioned on the chessboard? I can feel the questions rattling around in your frontal lobe, so let me work through a few, namely... Is Hillary finished, Hans? Does she know it? Will defeat in 08 mean she must forever relinquish dreams of Oval Office nookie? In an attempt to rescue the unrescueable will she fling so much shit that she takes Obama down with her? Also, does Michelle Obama really hate America? (And did Bill O'Reilly really refer to lynching her?) And Hans, am I the only one who thinks John McCain looks like a reanimated cadaver?

To which I say, yes, no, yes, no, no, yes, no.

For those of you who don't have to wash your hair, paint your fingernails, or abuse your local 7-11 shop attendant for making you reach for your change, let me explain in greater detail.

In Wisconsin yesterday Obama beat Hillary 58-41. This translates to a pledged delegate split of about 41-29, with another four delegates yet to be allocated. Obama, who was born in Hawaii, then took the Hawaii caucuses 76-20, which translates into a 14-6 delegate split. This gives him an overall lead of 1189-1027 in pledged delegates. (As I explained in a previous post, don't worry about superdelegates. The real contest here, no matter how much Hillary and some media outlets might muddy the water, is for pledged delegates. Ultimately, where the majority of the pledged delegates go, the superdelegates will follow.)

The Black Knight caused the Valentine’s Day campus rampage

Some Americans have serious issues. Every few weeks there are mass killings by pissed off people. Andrew Bolt blames:

The Matrix, A View To A Kill, Falling Down, Natural Born Killers, Reservoir Dogs, Last Man Standing, Full Metal Jacket, Dr. Butcher MD (aka Zombie Holocaust), Saw 1-3, Lord Of War, The Deer Hunter, True Romance, The Untouchables, 28 Days Later, 28 Weeks Later, Idiocracy, They Live, Apocalypse Now, End Of Days, The Shining, The Dead Zone, Dr. Strangelove, House MD (TV), Monty Python, TV Documentaries Relating To History

Muziek: KMFDM, Rammstein, Eisbrecher, Nine Inch Nails, Grendel, Impaled Nazarene, Macabre, Deathstars, The Prodigy, Combichrist, Godsmack, Slayer, Children Of Bodom, Alice Cooper, Sturmgeist, Suicide Commando, Hatebreed, Suffocation, Terrorizer.

Um... WTF?

After years of hardship, Scotch College finally opened its new badminton courts.

Australia fancies itself an 'egalitarian' nation whose sense of itself was forged on the beaches of Gallipoli and built on a bedrock of 'mateship' -- or some such after-the-fact romanticism. I guess all nations create a sense of who they are through stories that describe where they came from. All stories that purport to describe a national 'character' are probably two-fifths bullshit. That's the nature of foundational myths. The reality of a nation and its people is too unruly, too complicated, and too self-contradicting to be distilled down into a series of narrative-friendly adjectives or snapshots. So historians, and journalists, and the people themselves employ artistic licence.

And I guess there's a tendency among some people to quibble with these foundational myths, especially where they fuel jingoism or gloss over the sordid pockets of history that, over time, any nation accumulates. But sometimes it can be churlish to quibble, because these stories we tell about what it means to be an Australian (or a NZer or an American etc) are as much aspirational as they are factual. I reckon there's reason to hope that if a nation wants to think of itself and be perceived by others in a particular way, then it might actually embody that way of being a nation and a people. And after all, the Australian story isn't such a bad creation myth: sacrifice, camaraderie, and equality are all noble impulses.

"Where are fava beans and a nice Chianti when you need them?"

Today Barack Obama won what's come to be known in the US media as the Potomac Primary, namely simultaneous primaries held in Virginia, Maryland, and Washington DC. That's all very well, Hans, you say, but what does it mean? Who's in front? Will they stay in front? And what's their chance of going all the way and getting their own blowjob in the Oval Office? (And BTW, what the fuck is a superdelegate?)

All good questions, Grasshopper. But before we pull out the magnifying glass and start examining the pubic region of the American electoral system, let's review the nuts-and-bolts of the campaign so far. What's happened to date:

Obama wins: Iowa, South Carolina, Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah, Louisiana, Nebraska, US Virgin Islands, Washington (state), Maine, Washington DC, Maryland, Virginia.

Clinton wins: New Hampshire, Michigan*, Nevada, Florida*, American Samoa, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico**, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee,

Everyone on the planet has probably seen the Obama clip by now, but you may not have seen the McCain clip...

McCain clip below.

Democrats: Obama 37.58%, Edwards 29.75%, Clinton 29.47%.

In the context of such a tight race, that's a decisive victory for Obama. Although Clinton finished only a fraction of a percent behind Edwards, she nonetheless finished third. That will be tremendously damaging to her -- for so many years there's been an 'aura of inevitability' about the Clinton candidacy, an aura that her campaign cultivated. Now she's not only been beaten in Iowa, but been beaten into third place. Tomorrow, the New Hampshire papers will be full of post-mortems about Obama's success and Clinton's failure. His supporters will be galvanised; Clinton's disappointed. Waverers will almost certainly break in Obama's favour -- and before you know it, Obama's success will be self-perpetuating, as will Clinton's failure. In short, he will have the momentum.

I've said for nearly three months now that if either Clinton or Obama won Iowa, they'd go on to take the nomination, and I think that's how it's gonna turn out, particularly given the margin of Obama's victory. The turnout in Iowa was historic. Over 220,000 people caucused for the Democrats. That's over 75% more than caucused in Iowa in 2004. Obama drew a historic number of independents and young people. He also drew more votes than Clinton among both men and women, and the overall Democratic turnout exceeded the Republican turnout by 145%. In short, it was a staggering set of numbers. It's only one poll, and Iowa has a poor record as the predictor of the final outcome, but I'd be very surprised if Obama now doesn't take New Hamphire and sweep to the Democratic nomination.

In the US today, the Iowa Caucuses take place. After, in some cases, years of campaigning, Republican and Democratic candidates face their first vote. Though Iowa is a small, largely white, largely rural American state, with a weird, undemocratic voting system, it wields a disproportionately important say in the electoral politics of the US. That's because a win in Iowa will result in the winner getting a tidal wave of money and media -- and most importantly a bump of several percent in the next poll, the New Hampshire Primary, held six days later. And the US primary season is such that momentum begets momentum, money begets money, and media begets media.

That's why Iowa's so important. It's the first domino. The trick is in getting it to fall your way.

(The closing Iowa ads for Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are embedded below.)

On the Democratic side, New Hampshire is a tight race between Obama and Clinton, with Edwards a fairly distant third place. So if Obama or Clinton can win Iowa, that would probably give either enough juice to also triumph in New Hampshire. And if either of them can win both Iowa and New Hampshire, then they'd be hot favourites to walk away with the Democratic nomination. (If Edwards wins Iowa, which is possible, then it's a little unclear how that plays out for Clinton and Obama in New Hampshire.)

Trying to buy a ticket? You're nicked.This morning on my way to work I was arrested by Authorised Officers from Connex while trying to purchase a ticket.

While exiting Melbourne Central Station at 9am, I approached the officers to explain that I had a valid daily zone 2 ticket but that I needed to purchase a zone 1 ticket to complete my journey. I usually work in Glen Waverley which is in zone 2, but occasionally I am required to travel to North Melbourne, which is in zone 1. So, this morning, without thinking, I purchased my zone 2 ticket. It wasn’t until the train pulled into Caulfield station that I realised I’d forgotten the zone 1 ticket. I always do this; buying a zone 2 ticket is just automatic for me and it’s not until later in the journey that I realise. Anyway, I figured I’d be alright because the dozen or so times this has happened I’ve been able to purchase a zone 1 at Melbourne Central after explaining my mistake to the Authorised Officers. Not this time.